Can we learn from Mite Hockey?

30 12 2009

In youth hockey, the youngest  group (6-8 year olds) is called mites.  Watching a mite hockey game, especially with the players in their first games, is a unique experience.  Watching a kid on a breakaway is everything, an amalgam of excitement, anticipation, worry, dread.  You feel like you can chew off all your fingernails from the time the play starts to when the play ends.

Why? Purely the speed in which the play happens.  It takes too long.

Think about the speed of change within an organization.  If it takes too long, it probably doesn’t happen.  We talk about burning platforms, or Machiavellian-like beheadings.  Employees don’t like change, but what they really don’t like is the not knowing what the other side will look like.  So why do we draw this stage out?

  • Why do we take forever to move some projects?
  • Why do we announce reorganizations, and then take months to make it happen?
  • How much artificial time do we add to a number of the things we do, and what is the value of that time?
  • What is the impact if act twice as quickly as the day before?

If you need to get something done, get the right minds on it, have a discussion and be done with it.





Telling a Story

28 12 2009

“What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate” Luke in Cool Hand Luke (played by Paul Newman)

A friend of mine sent this video along to a number of friends in the Business Intelligence space, saying we need to be better story tellers (Thanks Katie McCray).  We do spend an enormous amount of time talking about data structures, common data dictionaries, ease of use, speed, consistency, etc.  What we typically fail to do is tell our clients how to create information, to tell the story in a convincing enough manner to create attention, and more importantly, enable action.

As analysts we typically spend more time talking about data discovery, and the calculations we used than starting off by making our point.  We try to create 50 charts to explain everything, and not the one chart that most simply illustrates our point.  This not only wastes time, but we lose our audience.

Watch the next couple of presentations you sit through and watch the number of slides that build up to the point trying to be made.  What happens is that with each slide our listeners pay less and less attention as they have lost the point trying to be made.  As learners, we need the point to be made first.  We need to see how it all comes together, then have it explained how to get there.  It provides the context for the point to be made.  People now understand what to listen for and why they are listening.

On a slightly different note, last week I wrote about the housing market and the Dangers of Leading Indicators.  I had to update the post due to a new story with a different viewpoint that ran in the Globe on the 23rd.  Amazing how story tellers can tell such dramatically different things.





Mass Layoffs Nov 2009

23 12 2009

Yesterday, the Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Mass Layoff Report.  The news was upbeat in that the trend continues to get better (meaning fewer mass layoff events) with only 1,797 events.  We have spoken about 2,000 events as being extremely high and November was the first time in the last 14 months that the number dropped below 2,000.  The bad news is this is still higher than 80% of the monthly numbers since 1999 so the numbers are again not positive, just less negative.

One bit of interesting news is that the number of layoffs (officially claimants) per event was at one of its lowest levels since the beginning of 1999.  This means that while the number of layoff events is still high, there were fewer claimants per event (fewer people laid off or more found something else), or that instead of 200,000 claimants, we saw only 165,346.  This number is a healthier indicator than the number of events (see the dotted red lines in the chart below and compare the crimson line and the blue line from the chart above).





Danger of Leading Indicators

22 12 2009

UPDATED 12-23, 2009:  Boston.com story about home sales – seems like we have stories with divergent viewpoints.  Good example of how a single version of the truth depends upon the story teller…

CNN Opening Paragraph: NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — After surging 10% in October, sales of existing homes jumped again in November, growing 7.4% compared with October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. (full article)

Boston Globe Opening Paragraph: WASHINGTON—Sales of new homes plunged unexpectedly last month to the lowest level since April, a sign the housing market recovery will be rocky and heavily dependent on the generosity of Uncle Sam. (full article)

Read each…Ahh, the politics of spin, or is it the spin of politics of spin.

November saw a healthy jump in home sales.  The good news is that home sales and housing starts are usually very good leading indicators about the health of the economy.  Yet the bad news, in this case we have a potentially baked number.   The market is being artificially inflated with both lower interest rates and a government subsidy for first time home buyers.  What makes this worse is we have created a situation where we know less – we know a number improved, but we have no understanding if the economy is better.

CNN Story on November Home Sales

This is one of the fears about designing the right KPIs.  We want to find the perfect KPI, or create a list that tries to include everything.  What we need are a few KEY indicators to trigger the right conversations about what actions (business levers to pull) to take or not take.   We also need to discuss performance and action in a holistic manner and not get caught in panic mode because one indicator seems to be below expectation.  We also do not want to trigger an action to artificially improve a number.

For example…Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) can be used as a measure of customer satisfaction.  The interpretation is that people pay the bills of the people they like first.  If you are able to shrink the number, then you at least have an indication that customers are generally happier than they were last month.  If the Marketing VP were compensated on Customer Satisfaction and we used DSO, the VP might change the payment terms.  While we might see improvement in DSO, we are probably not seeing an improvement in Customer Satisfaction, which was the goal when we started.

As you are designing KPIs:

  • Start with your high level annual goals for the year
  • Build out a system to discuss the implications (don’t just look at the number)
  • Assign someone to write up the implications on a regular basis
  • Create a commonly understood definition of the KPI, and document it where it can be easily accessed




Just get it Done – The Art of Ending Procrastination

21 12 2009

All too often, we sit and stare at the pile of things we have to do wondering how we will get through it faster than it seems to be growing.  We try to think strategically, we try to look at similar groups, we walk to the proverbial water cooler to complain about how much we have to do.

There are a number of things we can do…

  • An old manager of mine saw that I was swamped and becoming stressed about it.  She simply said, pick the three things that you have to get done this week and ignore the rest.  What happened is I did a very quick mental prioritization, picked the three things and got them done.  In fact, I had them done that day which then allowed me to get the other things done.
  • Another exercise is to just pick the thing on the top (or bottom of the pile – though the bottom can be a little dangerous) and just get started.
  • Not everything needs to be perfect.  Some things just need to get done, yet we often treat things like they have to be perfect.  And consider perfection is often unattainable, excellent and good enough are usually all we need, especially in terms of the trade off of time and effort.  We consult too many people, draft too many concepts all for an item some one may not really care about.  ABSOLUTELY some things needs to be done with great care, but that is not everything.  The art is applying the right effort to the right things.

“Momentum is the best way to stay on top of things”

  • Been thinking about starting a blog, no better day than today.  Go to Wordrpress (which I use) or Blogger, sign up and start.  It is not the first blog that matters, but the 10th.  Both sites are free, so your only barrier to enter is content and will to get it done.
  • Been thinking about dieting, eat half your lunch today.  Eat half again tomorrow.
  • Need to call a client about an issue, write down what you want from the call and make the call.
  • Need to buy a holiday present, hit Amazon and send it to them.

Just get it done – TODAY!





Happy Holidays

18 12 2009

Thanks to everyone who has taken a moment or two to read any of my posts.  I have enjoyed sharing my thoughts and concepts on Strategy & Operational Performance Management (and a few other topics thrown in for good measure) with you.

Have a great Holiday Season and enjoy the rest of the year.  May 2010 be one of your better years!!

Sincerely,

Michael





Consumer Price Index Nov 2009

16 12 2009

Today the BLS released the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The news is a little upbeat, but again it is based on energy prices driving the index.  The rest of the field is a little flat.  Overall the CPI rose .4% with Energy jumping 4.1%.

What is more interesting in news around this is that housing starts are on the rise and the stock market is up this morning on the announcement of the CPI data.

Stocks rise ahead of Fed decision





Predictive Analytics, Business Intelligence, and Strategy Management

9 12 2009

I was having a discussion with one of my clients this week and I thought he did a nice job summing up Predicative Analytics.

So in the World According to Reed (WOTR) – “queries answer questions, analytics creates questions.” My response was “and Strategy Management helps us to focus on which questions to answer.”

Reed Blalock is exactly right, traditional BI is about answering the questions we know. Analytics is really what we create with data mining – we look for nuances, things that might give us new insight into old problems. We use human intellect to explore and test. And yes, there is a little overlap. But what is really happening is that we have a different level of human interaction with the data.

BI is about history, analytics attempts to get us to think, to change, and idealistically to act.

The danger with both of these is that they can be resource intensive. Neither tool, or mindset should be left to their own devices. What is needed is a filter to identify the priority and purpose. This is where strategy management and scorecarding comes into play. We have built out massive informational assets without understanding where, when, and how to use it. We have pushed out enormous reporting structures and said “it’s all there, you can find anything you need” yet we scratch our heads when we see adoptions levels are low.

What we have typically not done all that well is build out that informational asset by how it helps us be more productive along product lines, divisions, sales region, etc. We have treated all dimensionality the same. Why, because it was easy. The BI tools are tremendous in how quickly you can add any and all dimensions.

“But because you can, doesn’t mean you should”

As we built out these data assets, we did not align them to performance themes.  We have gotten better with some key themes, like supply chain management, and human resource management, but what about customer performance?  We might look at sales performance, but that is a completely different lens than customer performance.

How do we determine which assets to start with…what assets do we need to be successful 3-5 years from now, or what are our biggest gaps to close today.  Think about customer value, or employee satisfaction (and that doesn’t mean more HR assets).  Think about your gaps in Strategy.

How often do we discuss…

  • Are our customers buying more or less frequently?
  • What are our best, and better customers doing?
  • What are the costs associated with serving our least profitable customers?
  • Where are our biggest holes in understanding?




Employment Situation November 2009

7 12 2009

On Friday, the BLS released the Employment Situation report.  Everyone jumped on the news that the unemployment rate actually dropped for the first time in months.  While this is a great indicator, the basis for the jump was an increase in temporary help and healthcare jobs.  With Christmas looming,  I fear this is an artificial indicator as this is temporary help for a season that requires more than normal levels of help.  We need a number of industries adding jobs for this report to be positive, until then it is just a little less negative.

We lost 11,000 jobs compared to the 130,000 that Wall Street expected.  Or perhaps we have cut so many jobs the last few months, that we could not find a place to cut anymore.  I am also curious if this isn’t a little manipulated either in timing or impact as the President has been calling for job creation.

What I would really like to see out of Congress and the White House are very specific plans around job creation.  Just like a company saying we want to see 20% growth, yet not laying out the specific marketing, sales, and operational plans to get there it is all just hope.  And hope is not strategy.





Celebrating the Employee

1 12 2009

I was flying to a client this week and one of the flight attendants was on her last leg of a 40 year career with the same airline.  The pilots and other flight attendants made a number of announcements to make her feel special.  40 years is unique in this day and age.  In a way, I was expecting to see a banner when we were walking off the plane welcoming her home and I felt bad for her when there wasn’t.

A few years back Jordan’s funiture closed their doors one day and flew all of their ~1,200 employees to Bermuda for a beach day (here is a little more about it).  Why would you spend the money to charter 4 private jets and loose a day’s worth of business?

“We’re the highest-volume per-square-foot furniture retailer in the country because of our people,” says Barry. “We want to put a smile on their faces.”

If people are our greatest, why do we find it so difficult to reward them.

  • How do we treat our employees?
  • Do we do things to make them special?
  • How do we celebrate major milestones?
  • Are compensation plans created and distributed with a “take it or move on” attitude?
  • When was the last time you did something different for your employees?




People will…

25 11 2009

People will do what they like, or what is easy if they do not understand priority or value.  The hard stuff is messy.  There is too much risk in the hard stuff…





Analytics Process

23 11 2009

Over the last couple of months I have been writing about a handful of US Economic Indicators.  While I have reviewed these over the last few years of my life, I had not done so on a regular basis.  This inconsistent and let’s call it a casual curiosity lead to never really understanding the implications behind the numbers.  Sure I could talk about them, but I could not leverage them.  While not an expert by any means, I can see a lot more now than I did when I started this blog series.

This is similar to ad-hoc analysis without purpose.  We do something once and create a little hype.  When we don’t have any vehicle to take advantage of the newly found ideas, the idea dies as does the learning.

Think about the process of how you handle ad-hoc analytics within your organization:

  • Do you have the right minds constantly looking for new issues?
  • Or, do you put the right minds on solving issues when they arise?
  • Can you name your best analytical minds?  Are they assigned to thought leadership and problem solving?
  • Do you use your analytical minds to challenge the knowledge levels of others?
  • How do you foster new thinking?

 

Consistency breeds familiarity, and familiarity breeds knowledge





Consumer Price Index – October 2009

20 11 2009

Yesterday the US Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October report on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).  Not all that surprisingly, the number rose .27% following last months .17% growth.  This marks the six straight month of growth in the CPI and that the Index is returning to the trend line prior to the October disruption.

In the chart below are two parallel lines marking a rough trend of the CPI.  It appears as if the steady growth rate is returning.  This is at least an indication that the economy is stabilizing.





Mass Layoff Events October 2009

20 11 2009

Today the US Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the October Mass Layoff Events (here are the Sept and Aug blogs).  We have watched this since late last year when the number of events crossed the 2,000 mark.  This marks our 14 month in a row where we have exceeded that level.  While this is still an alarming rate of Layoff Events at least we can say that the trend could be moving in the direction of dropping below the 2,000 next month.

I still have concerns about the state of the US Economy as we approach the end of the year.  If I were to guess, I think we will see this number drop below 2,000 for November, but return to greater than 2,000 in December and/or January.





Producer Price Index October 2009

18 11 2009

Yesterday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release of the Produce Price Index (PPI) saw prices moving north again, this time a .3% gain compared to last months .6% loss.  The numbers seem to be stabilizing (one month a little up, on month a little down).  Looking into a little more depth we see that Energy and Food are the primary drivers.

If you are looking for more information relevant to your industry – check out www.bls.gov/ppi/.  They break out the information a number of different ways.

 

 





The Death of the Dissenting Opinion

16 11 2009

Typically, the person with the shortest shelf life within an organization (either in terms of politics or employment) is the team member willing to pose the question, “Is this the right thing?”

  • Why do we demand everyone line up and support management philosophy?

I know organizations don’t set this as a mandate, and it is probably more an example of personal politics, but it is amazing how destructive this mentality becomes. Why are we so worried about having someone in our business ask critical questions?

The are obvious examples when we need someone to play the role of the Devil’s advocate.

  • Would tobacco products have been created with such strong addictives?
  • Would Nasa have launched the shuttle Challenger?
  • Had the US intelligence agencies worked together, might we have stopped at least one of the fateful 9/11 planes?
  • Would Enron still be an energy giant today if we listened to employee concerns?

We love good debates, so why not embrace the power of dissenting opinion?  Collect all the feedback and you probably have a stronger argument for moving forward.  In the end, you can still continue an initiative or program.  When we politically assassinate the people with a strong voice, we send a message to agree or be rendered ineffective.  This evolves into a “yes” culture and we risk leading lemmings.





The Cost of Infrastructure – Environmental Scanning (Blockbuster vs. NetFlix)

12 11 2009

Last week in a workshop I was asked the question about Environmental Scans and Strategy Management.  The challenge was probably long overdue.  When I was first drawing up my framework on Performance Management, I specifically wanted to call out questions about how we look at the market.  I felt I had seen too much insular thinking within companies with the risk being much too high.  We need to be looking at the market on a regular basis, perhaps not with high frequency.

Let’s roll back the clock on the movie rental business to 1990.  In almost every suburban strip mall was a mom and pop, or small chain movie rental store.  We were able to rent a movies and watch them in the comfort of our on home.  There was no DVR (though if we could figure out the VCR we could have taped movies), there were not 427 premium movie channels, and cable was still in its infancy.  Over the next decade, Blockbuster moved in and wiped out almost everyone else in the industry – “opening one store every seventeen hours” (Wikipedia – no reference).  We loved the new model, and the fact that our membership card worked even when we were on vacation.  If we went back and looked at the analyst reviews, I am sure they had glowing views of how this was the model for the future.  Viacom jumped in and bought the business for $8.4 billion in 1994.

Oh, how internet time flies.  NetFlix with no brick and mortar costs jumps into the game (not to mention DVR, Pay-for-View, TiVO, etc) and what was once valued as a $8.4 billion dollar business was spun back off for a fraction of its original purchase price.  Today Blockbusters market cap is ~$160 million (compared to NetFlix $3.2 billion) and it continues to loose money.

What happened…you can spin this a number of ways:

  • They were too tied to their infrastructure
  • They were slow to react, or never really understood the threat before it was too late
  • They thought they were too big to fail

They were a great business model, let’s take a cottage industry and scale it.  And it worked great for a decade.  How do you think they would answer the question about the relevance to a more rigorous environmental scanning process?

Just think, perhaps even one conversation about “what would happen if someone figures out how to deliver movies via the internet” might have saved Blockbuster.  I know, I know, this could never happen to you as this was an isolated incident.  Think of the travel industry, General Motors, Enron, Compaq, CompUSA, TWA – and I am sure you could add 20 more…

Companies, like the products they often make, have shelf lives.  If we are not thinking of new ways to reinvent ourselves, it is highly likely someday we will become a “where are they now” business case.

  • What do you specifically do to challenge status quo?
  • When was the last time you had your best minds come up with the next generation business models?
  • When was the last time you identified the 3 largest threats to your business?
  • When was the last time you had a 3rd party provide a critique of the market you are in?




Defining the Customer – Brandwagon

9 11 2009

One of my favorite strategy quotes is Michael Porter’s - “The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.”

It is easy to jump on what we perceive as good deals, or trends.  Take for example my old story about Patagonia after Sarah Palin stated Patagonia as one of her favorite brands.  Instead of jumping on the bandwagon of seemingly a guaranteed increase in sales, they choose to distance themselves from Sarah Palin with the following quote:

“Patagonia’s environmental mission greatly differs from Sarah Palin’s,” Patagonia rep Jen Rapp told the WSJ. “Just wearing the clothing of an environmental company does not necessarily make someone an environmentalist.”

Or when Pepsi comes knocking with a “great deal”…

  • How well do we know our customers?
  • Can we use this to our advantage and draw more people in by being selective in what we offer?
  • When Wal~Mart moves into town…do you change what you do, or let them eat up your profits?
  • How unique are you and what value does that create?




Employment Situation Oct 2009

6 11 2009

The employment situation continues to demonstrate the frailty of the current economic climate.  In Sept the unemployment rate was 9.8%, Friday it was announced that Oct witnessed this number increase to 10.2%.  ”This is the highest rate since April 1983.”  We are also at the second highest point (and growing) in the history of tracking the data – 1948.

(Here is the link to the commissioner’s report to Congress and the original report)

Employment Situation Oct 2009

If we look at a visual of the informtion, a number of things jump out at least to me:

1.  The Good, it looks like (at least to me) the higher the number, or the swifter the increase, the quicker the the unemployment rate drops.  There appears to be a natural slope (green line – A) to the decline in the the unemployment rate after a spike, which then is followed by a less gradual slope that marks a return to a healthy market (red line – B).  In roughly 1975 and again in 1983 we saw two spikes which then followed the green line’s slope – except in the case of 1983, we actually saw that trend bear out over the longer term, yet moved faster during the initial recovery period (reb box).

2. The Bad – if this follows the trend pattern of 1983 we may be looking at another 7-8 year recovery process to return the unemployment rate to around 6% which roughly appears to be natural healthy level.

3. The Ugly – We have yet to see the peak of this trend.  And even if this does turn around in the next month or two, we are so bad a shape across so many other sectors it may take far longer for us to return to a 6% unemployment rate.  If we continue to see credit tighten up at the rate it is going, we will see continued pressure on unemployment.





Price of Oil

27 10 2009

One of the biggest impacts to the US economy is the cost of oil.  We are still the leading consumers, though our lead is being taken over by China.  It is no surprise that the price of oil/gas can either fuel US economic growth, or bring it to a crawl.  I remember (somewhat fuzzy) as a kid waiting in line for gas, and I sold my Ford Expedition in fear that gas was going to see $5/gallon last year. While perhaps I sold the car a little prematurely, the basic fundamental truth about the control of the price of oil is well beyond me. And in someways beyond any of us.

OPEC mostly gets away with what it wants in terms of prices, and China is clearly working to leverage its relations with OPEC countries to improve its position.  While this isn’t necessarily bad for the US, we do lose some of our bargaining power.  And as China continues to increase demand, it drives up market prices.

I am going to try to add the Price of Oil to the Baumohl Indicator series on a bi-weekly basis.  My goal is to continue to explore some of the indicators of US Economic Performance and how they impact business cycles.